Blue Jays are contenders in 2024 .. but it looks like the rise may have stalled .. can they finally take flight before it’s too late?

Posted: March 28th, 2024 | No Comments »

SPECIAL FROM ROB SPARROW, HIGH PARK, TORONTO. MARCH 28, 2024. When the Toronto Blue Jays finished their 2022 season, they made a determination that the status quo wasn’t acceptable.

To that end, both a strategic and cultural shift for the Blue Jays in 2023 featured a vastly different style compared to many of the teams that came before.

(1) A Bitter Ending to 2023…

José Berríos.

A one-dimensional offence heavily reliant on right-handed power hitters added left-handed bats in an attempt to balance the order. Outfield defence was prioritized to improve athleticism and limit extra-base hits on the defensive end, albeit at the expense of offensive production.

Overall, that off-season strategy was to upgrade the pitching and defence to complement an everyday lineup designed to beat teams in a variety of ways. This group wasn’t going to sit back and wait for a homer, it intended on applying pressure by hitting balls to the gaps, moving runners over and taking extra bases. These moves were all in service of creating a more well-rounded Blue Jays team that emphasized fundamentals, improved defence with a more serious-minded approach – minus the home run jacket and joyous dugout sunflower seed shower celebrations that fans enjoyed.

Yet by moving away from a part of their fun-loving identity that people were drawn to, the Blue Jays left themselves with precisely one avenue to connect with their fans: Winning. By not meeting expectations in that area (falling to a third place 89-win regular season), the frustrated fan base was left feeling that they had received little in return for what it had lost.

The failure to launch Blue Jay 2023 season was punctuated in the Wild Card round by another controversial managerial pitching decision that took centre stage for the second straight postseason. With Game Two scoreless in the fourth inning and starter Jose Barrios steamrolling through the Minnesota Twins lineup, manager John Schneider strolled to the mound to bring in Yusei Kikuchi (a pitcher that had not relieved all season) who promptly gave up the only two runs in the 2-0 elimination game loss – their postseason “next level” run was over before it really began.

Bo Bichette (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images).

Manager John Schneider’s ill-conceived move of taking starter Jose Berrios out created friction throughout the team; between the front office and manager who both deflected blame while throwing each other under the bus, and between the entire organization (front office/manager) and the players. Some of Toronto’s players discussed the move after the game, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. saying “everybody was surprised.” Veteran Whit Merrifield was more critical in his post-game comments. “I hated it, frankly,” Merrifield said, “It’s not what cost us the game, but it’s the kind of baseball decisions that are taking away from managers and baseball.”

We got beat up two years in a row in the playoffs,” Bo Bichette told reporters, choosing his words carefully but clearly intent on making a point. “I think there is a lot or reflection needed … from players, but from the organization from the top down. Everybody needs to reflect to see what we can do better.” Parsing his words, it was clear who Bichette was referring to with “everybody”. Another lost season of baseball by the CEO Mark Shapiro/GM Ross Atkins tandem that is entering its ninth year with little to show.

(2) Eight years and Counting…On the Outside looking up…the lost rings

August of 2015 was a time of excitement and joy around the Toronto Blue Jays. Bolstered by then Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos’s trade deadline deals for star players Troy Tulowitzki and David Price, the Jays steamrolled its opposition going 42-15 for its first division championship since 1993. So, it was with curious timing on August 31st, that Blue Jay ownership announced the hiring of Mark Shapiro as CEO to lead the ballclub at the conclusion of the season.

Jose Bautista (right), Josh Donaldson (left) , and Edwin Encarnacion (centre), 2015

After the heartbreaking loss in the American League Championship series to Kansas City that October, Anthopoulos (who would be chosen 2015 Baseball executive of the year) resigned, pushed out by an ownership structure that had him reporting to new CEO Shapiro. It was a gutsy move at the time, especially walking away from a huge late offer from Owner Edward Rogers to stay with the club – yet it was clear that he would no longer be calling the shots – it would be Shapiro’s team going forward.

Just two years later, Anthopoulos was hired by the Atlanta Braves to run its Baseball operations. Since his hiring in 2018, the Braves have won their division every year, in that time they have won 24 playoff games culminating with the 2021 World Series, and are widely regarded as the best run organization in Major League Baseball. Conversely, the Blue Jays last won playoff games in 2016, with Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, and Edwin Encarnacion, all of them essentially Anthopoulos players, leading the way.

The Shapiro-Atkins constructed teams — even as Anthopoulos left a gift named Vladimir Guerrero Jr. behind (signed by him in July 2015) and his remaining staff pushed for the drafting of Bo Bichette (June 2016) against the wishes of the new Shapiro front office — have seen the Blue Jays reach the wild card position just three times since 2017. Their post-season record to date is 0-6, and the Blue Jays are the only team in the American League East not to have won the division in the Shapiro-Atkins eight-year regime:

TeamWLPct.Division Champs
New York684510.5732019, 2022
Tampa Bay659535.5522020, 2021
Boston650544.5442016, 2017, 2018
Toronto609585.510NONE
Baltimore526668.4412023
Mark Shapiro

Mark Shapiro is an analytics and numbers guy — so let’s crunch the numbers. He’s been a club president or GM in Major League Baseball for 23 seasons in Cleveland and Toronto: yet he has never taken a team to the World Series and has not won a playoff round since 2007 with a team that he has played any part in building. He may be terrific at stadium renovations (a long-suffering resident baseball observer loves the new swanky patios and its many drink and food offerings), and doing his statesmen like press conferences. But where is there any evidence from hiring a fumbling double-speak GM, to hiring two run-of-the-mill managers, that he can lead the Blue Jays to a World Series?

We are now approaching a decade since the August 2015 Shapiro hiring that has radically altered two franchises. Blue Jay ownership was right in going hard after Anthopoulos to stay on with the team. The sentiment was correct at the time, but it was wrong to try to pair him with Shapiro. History has shown that Anthopoulos didn’t need a partner or a politician alongside him to run the baseball operations, then or now, and our lost World Series rings reside down in Atlanta and not here in Toronto.

(3) Intriguing yet Underwhelming Offseason

Yusei Kikuchi.

For a few hours on a Friday afternoon in mid-December speculation was running rampant that free agent and generational talent Shohei Ohtani was on private jet on his way to Toronto. Ohtani speculation was flying at hyper speed on social media, as Baseball insider J.P. Morosi reported a decision was “imminent”. Flightradar24, an online flight tracker, had 18,800 people following the private jet, their most-tracked flight of the day. To further the intrigue, it was reported that Blue Jays pitcher Yusei Kikuchi, a friend of Ohtani, had made a Friday night reservation for 50 people at a sushi restaurant near Rogers Centre.

Alas, like many things in today’s media, it was “news” that took on a life of its own. Then, the soap opera took a different path, as local reporters flocked to the airport, it was revealed that Canadian entrepreneur Robert Herjavec of “Shark Tank” fame was on the private jet being tracked to Toronto, not Ohtani. The next day, Ohtani announced that he was signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers (as it should have been obvious he would do all along) for a record $700M over 10 years. And just like that, with the Blue Jays both seeking a dynamic way to both turn the page and recast the path forward, what looked like a transformational signing in Blue Jay history was gone, leaving them scrambling in an offseason that was on the whole underwhelming.

Kevin Kiermaier.

Hard as it is to reconcile, once the aspirational pursuit of Shohei Ohtani failed, the Blue Jays shifted to a cautious secondary plan that netted them Designated Hitter Justin Turner, Infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Pitcher Yariel Rodriguez and Outfielder Kevin Kiermaier, who re-signed with the Blue Jays after testing free agency.

In every instance, the Jays teased a brand-name, story-altering signing and delivered a knockoff version of that player; instead of Shohei Ohtani the Jays got Justin Turner, instead of Yoshinobu Yamamoto they got Yariel Rodriguez, instead of Juan Soto they got Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Bargain bin shopping indeed, that culminated in the feel-good story of the Jays signing 40-year-old hometown hero Joey Votto off his couch to a minor league contract in hopes of making the club sometime later this year.

Whether essentially running it back with the same team and expecting a different outcome was the right call will play out in the months ahead. But this underwhelming offseason had led to tepid interest in a fanbase this spring, with people questioning how 2024 is going to be any better than 2023?

(4) To the Core…A Bridge Year with Major Decisions looming…

The Blue Jays go into 2024 with a new theme, gone is “Next Level” replaced by the slogan “To the Core”. When you think of “Core” and the Toronto Blue Jays, two names jump right out at you: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. The star pairing are now just two seasons away from free agency. In one way or another, the trajectory of this franchise is about to change depending on what happens over the next two years.

Leaner Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hoping productive offseason leads to big 2024!

Win a World Series and that trajectory is on a rocket ship skyward supported by new Rogers Centre luxury seating renovation revenues. Don’t quite win, yet get the franchises cornerstones in place with long-term contracts, and the window of contention will remain open through the 2020s. Take a step back in 2024, and who knows where things go heading into the final season of team control for the two homegrown stars.

That is why it raised some eyebrows this offseason when GM Ross Atkins chose to take Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to salary arbitration instead of reaching an agreement as he did with Bo Bichette last offseason. The arbitration process is inherently adversarial, where the arguments of a players value made by the team can be taken as insults. More so when the relationship between player and team is so important – the stakes skyrocket and dwarf the amounts being argued over. Quite simply, teams rarely take star players to arbitration if they wish to cultivate a long-term relationship.

Ultimately, a three-person panel ruled in favour of Guerrero’s $19.9-million ask rather than the Blue Jays’ $18.05-million offer, but regardless, the club lost as soon as it ended up in arbitration with its all-star first baseman. Guerrero is sure to come away from his arbitration case feeling good that he stood his ground and won, yet he’ll also know that he was pushed into a hearing room by a team that doesn’t see his value in the same way he does. If you want the guy, why antagonize him, why bother knocking him down where everyone can see? Like many decisions the Jays make, it’s hard to find the logic.

As for these two “Core” Blue Jays, the feeling is that of the two it would be Guerrero, rather than Bichette, who would sign some sort of long-term deal. For whatever reason, there has always been a more proprietary feeling around Guerrero than Bichette; the sense that if the Blue Jays were ever going to become one player’s “team,” it was going to be Guerrero. Yet coming off two disappointing seasons, the Blue Jays now seem to be asking just who and what is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as a big-league ball player, and can he be the “guy” to lead the team?

Blue Jays’ GM Ross Atkins.

The fact is, Bichette has outperformed Guerrero in all but one of the five seasons they’ve been together. Per FanGraphs, Bichette had more WAR (Wins Above Replacement) every year except for 2021, which was Guerrero’s outlier COVID season, aided by playing a majority of home games in the minor league parks. Bichette’s track record, combined with bat-to-ball skills that should age well and ability play the premium shortstop position, make this a tougher choice than it once seemed. If the Jays are forced to pick one, perhaps Bichette should be the guy who receives a long-term deal.

With both Guerrero and Bichette sons of big-league fathers – who have made significant money in the game – it’s extremely hard to envision either player taking any sort of discount this close to free agency. Both believe they’re capable of so much more and are looking to bet on themselves that more money will be available down the road if they continue to produce. That and Blue Jays offseason willingness to shell out $500 Million to Ohtani, has both representatives in the Guerrero and Bichette camp salivating, knowing that when the time comes they will ask the Jays to “show them the money”. With their free agency timeclock ticking the stakes are raised for the 2024 season.

(5) Bold Predictions for 2024…for Better or Worse…

Need for Offensive Improvement Within

The Blue Jays are looking at a bounce back this year from an offence in 2023 that sat middle of the pack as they were 15th in the majors with 746 runs, 16th in homers with 188, and 13th in slugging percentage at .417. That lack of offensive output culminated in the Wild Card round, where they scored just once during the two-game sweep by the Minnesota Twins.

George Springer

No one could have predicted Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk, George Springer and Daulton Varsho all failing to meet expectations at the exact same time. That foursome alone went from 15.8 WAR in 2022 to 6.9 last year, and their home run output dropped from 98 to 75. Quite simply, almost half their lineup had down seasons and repeatedly failed to deliver in clutch situations (.730 OPS hitting with runners in scoring position was 20th in MLB).

With the only major hitting offseason addition being the 39-year-old Justin Turner, the Blue Jays are betting on internal improvements and positive regression to past production. According to Shapiro, “We just took the best strategy we could build based upon the players in place, so we doubled down in the belief of our own players…the core of this off-season, without a doubt, was built upon the belief in our players.” The club’s 2024 fate to a large degree then rests on extracting more from the current core led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, George Springer, Daulton Varsho, Alejandro Kirk, Danny Jansen and Cavan Biggio. “This group is hungry,” Blue Jays manager John Schneider said. “There’s guys that definitely want to do more things than we did last year. There’s definitely a sense of urgency to do more.”

Daulton Varsho.

Top of that list for improvement within is Vlad Guerrero Jr. This is the season where Guerrero either figures it out, or cements the impression that he is just another solid major league player that had one big season and not the superstar player expected based on his pedigree and advance billing. To recapture some of the lost magic of 2021, he has called for the reinstatement of the Blue Jay Home Run jacket. “I just want to bring the jacket back,” Guerrero told reporters in the spring. “The player no want to do it? I probably do it by myself in the corner.”

The Blue Jays go into the season with a top-heavy lineup 1-4 (Springer/Bichette/Guerrero Jr./Turner),, that drops precipitously as you get to 5-9 (Varsho to Kiermaier etc.) – its a solid first four and then a lot of ifs and maybes and we shall see. Combine that with the fact that the lineup lacks home run punch from traditional power positions (LF/RF/3B/DH), a lot will have to go right to produce enough runs to win the division…

Uncertainty in Rotation

Alek Manoah.

The 2023 Blue Jays became the only MLB team in the past four seasons to have at least four pitchers make 31 starts – that consistency was the unexpected strength of the ballclub. It’s a run of health that’s almost impossible to replicate, and even with that, and a third ranked 3.85 ERA, the Blue Jays still managed to win just 89 games.

That durability has been put to the test early in 2024. In the span of just a few days in spring training, the Blue Jays’ starting rotation became a source of far more uncertainty than expected. First, Alek Manoah was scratched with a sore shoulder after pitching one spring training game and has been sidelined indefinitely. And then there’s staff ace Kevin Gausman, who led last year’s rotation with a 3.16 ERA on his way to a third-place finish in American League Cy Young voting. He has been slow to recover from “general shoulder fatigue”, and did not pitch till the last game in spring training on Monday, he is questionable to make his first start in the opening series of the season.

The Blue Jay relief core has also not been immune to injuries. Closer Jordan Romano hasn’t pitched in a game since March 10 because of soreness in his right elbow, and fellow late-inning reliever Erik Swanson is dealing with a forearm issue that has him sidelined for the start of the season.

Jordan Romano.

With the four injuries altering plans, there are plenty of moving parts with the season ready to begin Thursday in Tampa Bay. To that end, the Jays have already announced that Bowden Francis, a lightly regarded 27-year-old who’s never started a major-league game, will feature in the first series of the season.

None of this may be a sign of things to come, but it definitely isn’t the basis for optimism at the outset of the season, as the pitching staff will be leaned on heavily to make up for any of the offence’s deficiencies.

Big Degree of Variance

With all these question marks, the Blue Jays might have the largest spread in baseball in terms of floor and ceiling. Everything about the Toronto Blue Jays’ quiet off-season has suggested they haven’t meaningfully improved — and that’s precisely how the projections see it. FanGraphs has pegged the Blue Jays for 85 wins in 2024, a notable step back for a team that’s averaged 90 victories over the last three years. Based on their data, Fangraphs analysts have determined that the Jays have just a 16.5% chance to win their division and just 49.3% to make the playoffs behind the Yankees (70.5%), the Rays (59.4%), and the Orioles (52.8%).

Toronto Blue Jays fans in Seattle. Whatever else in 2024 Jays are still Canada’s team in MLB!

The current forecasting is a far cry from a year ago when the Jays were touted in the mix as World Series contenders and confidently and justifiably set the division title as their goal. “I think it’s the first time we’re being doubted,” Bichette told reporters this spring. “We’ve always had high expectations, and I think it’s definitely a different mindset trying to prove people right than trying to prove people wrong.” “I think we’d all be lying if we don’t see any of it, or it doesn’t motivate us in any sort of way,” Bichette said. “I think there’s guys who have pride in there and want to show people what we can do.”

As legendary basketball coach Pat Riley stated, ‘If you are not getting better, you are getting worse.” Every team in every league is either rising or falling. It’s hard to define what exactly makes that the case, but you know it when you see it. The 2024 Toronto Blue Jays are contenders, but it looks and feels as though the rise has stalled, which means the fall may be at hand. The question for this year’s squad is whether they can take flight and achieve something of significance before time and gravity take hold of them.

Rob Sparrow is a Toronto marketing analyst and noted local authority on the sporting life.

Indian Election I : Democracy in India could prove just as troubling as Democracy in America in 2024

Posted: March 26th, 2024 | No Comments »
Michael Seward, Quantum Mystery, 2024.

COUNTERWEIGHTS EDITORS, GANATSEKWYAGON, ON, CANADA. TUESDAY, MARCH 26, 2024. We now know that : “General elections will be held in India from 19 April 2024 to 1 June 2024 to elect the 543 members of the 18th Lok Sabha. The elections will be held in seven phases and the results will be announced on 4 June 2024.”

The Wikipedia article goes on : “This will be the largest-ever election in the world … Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be contesting … for a third consecutive term … Approximately 960 million … individuals out of a population of 1.4 billion are eligible to participate.”

India and Canada today : one roadmap to a Canadian republic?

This 2024 election in India has some particular interest for Canada — which shares with India what Canada’s Constitution Act, 1867 calls “a Constitution similar in Principle to that of the United Kingdom.”

(The Lok Sabha or “House of the People,” eg, is the lower popularly elected house of India’s parliament, equivalent to the Canadian House of Commons. And Narendra Modi is the leader of the BJP [Bharatiya Janata Party] — the political party with the largest number of seats in the current 17th Lok Sabha.)

Michael Seward, Nature’s Way, 2024.

In particular again India today offers Canada one instructive model with regard to such key current headlines as “Support for King Charles wanes as Canadians’ republican sentiment grows … Growing numbers of Canadians want an elected head of state, survey reveals.”

India provides a model of “a Constitution similar in Principle to that of the United Kingdom” that does not have the British (or any other) monarch as head of state.

The republican head of state in India (somewhat misleadingly called a President, from Canada’s point of view?) is indirectly elected by the members of federal and state (provincial in Canada’s case) legislatures.

(Ireland offers another model, with a directly or popularly elected ceremonial head of state in a parliamentary democracy. The holder of this office is also called a President, but without the day-to-day governing power of the Prime Minister. The president in such cases has a role more like the monarch’s role in the UK — or in practice the Governor General of (once upon a time) Ireland, India and (still now in 2024) Canada, Jamaica, Australia, New Zealand, and so forth.)

Democracy in India in the global village today

PM Narendra Modi at public rally in Kolkata, India., April 3, 2019. (Photo by Atul Loke/Getty Images/CNN).

From a broader and no doubt more important standpoint, the 2024 general election in India (which will start somewhat less than four weeks from now) arguably has implications for the great cause of democracy in the global village almost (or even just?) as weighty as those of the later US presidential (and congressional) election on November 5, 2024.

These implications flow from the designs of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party.

(Just to start with, “Bharat” is the ancient Sanskrit name for “India.” And see this intriguing piece from Al Jazeera : “India or Bharat: What’s behind the dispute over the country’s name? … A change to the Sanskrit name is backed by PM Narendra Modi’s BJP, which says the word ‘India’ is a symbol of colonial slavery.”)

Election campaign poster for Indian National Congress party, 1951-1952.

Narendra Modi first became Prime Minister of India in the election of 2014 (again starting in April and this time ending in May).

During the past 10 years two successive governments led by Mr. Modi’s right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party have done a lot to crystalize some long-simmering Hindu nationalist alternative to the “stable, secular, progressive state” envisioned by the Congress party (and accompanying Indian National Congress movement), that did so much to create the modern independent Republic of India — before and finally just after the Second World War.

(Or, to cite the still striking language in the Preamble to the 1950 Constitution, first moved in the late 1940s Constituent Assembly by Indian National Congress leader Jawaharlal Nehru : “WE, THE PEOPLE OF INDIA having solemnly resolved to constitute India into a SOVEREIGN SOCIALIST SECULAR DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC and to secure to all its citizens …”)

“The era of this kind of entitlement is now over under PM Narendra Modi”

As far as socialist goes in this formula, Mr. Modi’s two governments so far have been resolutely capitalist on economic development grounds.

“States and union territories of India by spoken first language.”

Some might say as well that on at least some economic understandings of the term PM Modi has been more “progressive” than the Congress party today. (Which forms the main and still strongest party in opposition to Narendra Modi’s aggressively right-wing regime.)

As far as secular goes, Mr. Modi’s governments have also presided over what seem from a distance like strong efforts to increase public emphasis on the Hindu religion (and its broader cultural reach), that does still unite more than three-quarters of the Indian population.

(At the same time, Hindi as a language is not the mother tongue or even first language of a majority of the wider Indian community. In this respect India remains “more like Europe” than any single country — though with a big Hindi-speaking region in the middle north.)

Finally (for now), we remain particularly concerned, as friendly offshore admirers of the world’s largest democracy (or worse), by two recent events in, as it were, the build-up to the Indian election that will start this coming April 19, 2024.

The first is last year’s sentence of Congress party leader Rahul Gandhi to two years’ imprisonment for some intemperate criticism of PM Modi. (Admirably enough, Mr. Ghandi’s conviction was subsequently suspended by the Supreme Court of India.)

Our second annoying offshore democratic fan’s concern is about last month’s government freezing of the opposition Congress party bank account.

Michael Seward, Confronting Surrealism, 2024.

And we’re not comforted by such explanations as : “BJP national spokesperson Sambit Patra said, ‘As far as bank account freezing is concerned if you are a defaulter, you will be treated like one. The sense of entitlement that the Gandhi family had that even if we were a defaulter, provisions of the law of this country would not apply to us. The era of this kind of entitlement is now over under PM Narendra Modi.’”

In any case if the recent polling is any guide PM Narendra Modi’s BJP and the wider “National Democratic Alliance” it leads will almost certainly win a comfortable enough third consecutive term in office, when the final results of the 2024 Indian election are announced this coming June 4.

Even so, because Indian politics right now still seems so intriguing and important to us, this will be only the first of several notes we’ll offer on the subject — the Indian election 2024, as intermittently viewed by a fascinated if at best half-informed group at the office in the faraway urban wilderness of Southern Ontario, north of the Great Lakes in Canada … through the latest new lens of the world-wide web …

Who is supposed to be running the Government of Canada — the federal government elected by the Canadian people or 10 provincial premiers ??

Posted: March 14th, 2024 | No Comments »
Michael Seward, Up and Running. 2024. Acrylic. 24” x 36”.

RANDALL WHITE, FERNWOOD PARK, TORONTO . THURSDAY, MARCH 14, 2024. Last night I heard an eminent CTV host urge that many (mostly Conservative) provincial premiers want the Liberal federal government to change its carbon tax policy.

Doesn’t this mean (the implication seemed to be) that the federal government should do just that?

This reminded me of a current concern of the unusually independent freelance “member of the Canadian Parliamentary Press Gallery” in Ottawa, Dale Smith.

On Mr. Smith’s view, the “legacy media” (and especially CBC TV) have been trying to hold the federal government responsible for glitches or worse in federal-provincial programs. In fact these troubles are the fault of “delinquent premiers who can’t live up to their promises.”

In the federal-provincial child care program, Mr. Smith explains on his website today, eg : “fewer than half of the promised spaces have been created, and they [the CBC in this case but legacy media at large as well] want to make this a federal problem.”

Mr. Smith goes on : “It’s not, however — the federal government did their part, and delivered the promised funding, and what is left is for the provinces to live up to the agreements that they signed, and put their own money into the system. Several provinces are not doing that ….”

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Polling from last half 2023 and first quarter 2024 may not be reliable guide to Canadian election in fourth quarter 2025

Posted: March 12th, 2024 | No Comments »
Michael Seward, Generations. 2024. Acrylic. 42” x 54”.

RANDALL WHITE, FERNWOOD PARK, TORONTO . TUESDAY, MARCH 12, 2024. Individual polls vary on exact numbers. But by almost the middle of March 2024 all polls have been saying for some time that it is very hard to see how the Justin Trudeau Liberals could “win” a fourth Canadian federal election in a row, in any at all near future.

Some recent polls have placed the New Democrats within shouting distance of the Liberals as well. (See eg obscure footnote at end of this piece,)

This has inevitably led to speculation that Jagmeet Singh’s New Democrats, thinking they could at least replace the Liberals as official opposition in a fresh election, might abrogate the current Liberal-NDP Supply and Confidence Agreement, and vote to bring the Trudeau Liberal minority government down.

NDP ad on Conservative Party of Canada leader Pierre Poilievre, March 11, 2024 .

On these assumptions there no doubt could be a federal election in Canada in 2024 — along with elections in more than 60 other countries globally — in the fateful year we are living through in many parts of the world.

If there is a federal election before the end of this year, the smart money has to say what polling guru Éric Grenier said yesterday to prospective newsletter subscribers : “As we enter the spring, the polls aren’t getting any better for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, leaving the Conservatives with multiple paths to a majority government when the next election is held.”

On this same logic a Conservative Prime Minister Pierre Poilievre — younger and not remotely as rich but otherwise almost as twisted as Donald Trump? — is more or less inevitable before the end of this year. It still seems to me, however, that all this rests on a certain assumption about the ultimate objectives of Jagmeet Singh and his federal New Democrats.

The 2024 election scenario, that is, assumes the highest and/or most important objective of the federal New Democrats is just to replace the Liberals as official opposition. (There is absolutely nothing in current polling to suggest that the New Democrats could actually win even a minority government in a fresh election — ie replace the Liberals as a federal governing party.)

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Brian Mulroney from Baie-Comeau : The last of the Progressive Conservatives?

Posted: March 6th, 2024 | No Comments »
Canadian distinct-society federalist Brian Mulroney (l) in conversation with Quebec sovereigntist René Lévesque … about le beau risque?

COUNTERWEIGHTS EDITORS, GANATSEKWYAGON, ON. WEDNESDAY, MARCH 6, 2024. Yesterday’s announcement of the state funeral for former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney (1984–1993) from present Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (2015–20??) is suitably couched in high-minded language :

Brian Mulroney devoted his career to serving Canadians. He was an extraordinary statesman and distinguished politician, respected both here at home and around the world … To honour the legacy he leaves behind, a state funeral is being held in Montreal on March 23rd …”

Most of the almost ubiquitous other commentary we’ve seen has had a similar tone. And in this context we at least found online journalist Holly Doan’s posting of some much more unguarded Mulroney remarks on March 4 refreshing (or at least a more realistic change of pace).

Michael Seward, The Human Animal: antiportrait. 2024. Acrylic. 30”sq.

The remarks were taken from Peter C. Newman’s controversial 2005 book on the “Secret Mulroney Tapes” (which Mr. Mulroney himself felt was a betrayal) : “Prime Minister Brian Mulroney: Ottawa is a ‘sick’ city that runs on ‘goddamned incest’: ‘They’re all married to one another. They’re shacked up with one another. Their wives are on the payroll of the CBC. It’s just awful.’”

There is no doubt some deeper truth in all this — which is of course why it’s interesting. (It’s also telling tales out of school, which is also why it’s interesting.) At the same time, it finally reminded us that we have a good enough and even somewhat more high-minded tribute to Brian Mulroney of our own, in the relevant pages of senior editor Randall White’s almost altogether completed work in progress, Children of the Global Village : Democracy in Canada Since 1497.

With respect and (as with so many others among us) some real admiration, here then are the first two sections on Canada’s 18th prime minister from Part IV, Chapter 2 of Dr. White’s draft Canadian political history book as it appears on this site. They start with a subtitle …

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Reconciliation and Land Act in BC on Canada’s Pacific Coast (and BC election this coming October 19)

Posted: March 1st, 2024 | No Comments »
Michael Seward, Weird Event in the Night Sky over Great Bear Lake, NWT. 2024. Acrylic. 42” x 54”.

NORTH AMERICAN NOTEBOOK. RANDALL WHITE, FERNWOOD PARK, TORONTO . FRIDAY, MARCH 1, 2024. I recently found two articles from The Tyee on the current state of government and politics in Canada’s Pacific Province unusually intriguing.

The opinion polling still seems to be suggesting that David Eby’s high-flying New Democrats will probably win a second majority government in the BC provincial election to be held on or before October 19, 2024. (Although see also this recent Polling Canada note!)

Former BC New Democrat Premier John Horgan (l) with current BC New Democrat Premier David Eby and family.

I nonetheless finished reading my two Tyee articles with at least some slight sense that there was one issue over which the Eby government has lately been having some trouble. And this could spread at least a minor cloud over the election this fall.

The first article appeared on February 21, 2024, and is headlined “Throne Speech Looks Ahead to October Election … NDP promises action on affordability, health care and reconciliation.”

The second article, from February 22, bears the headline ”NDP Hits Brakes on Land Act Reconciliation Plan … Opposition forces government to relaunch consultations; Cullen blames misinformation.”

The second article elaborates on problems with the third of the three main issues on which the BC New Democrat government, in office sine 2017, is apparently seeking to be re-elected on this coming October 19 (according to its recent Throne Speech). A few quotations from the article suggest the thickening plot.

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It may be the Pacific Ocean in California that bothers MAGA Republicans most

Posted: February 20th, 2024 | No Comments »
Michael Seward, Man with Mask, 2024.

COUNTERWEIGHTS EDITORS, GANATSEKWYAGON, ON. TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 20, 2024. According to a Leger survey of US adults for the Los Angeles Times released last week, “48% of Republicans polled believe California is ‘not really American.’” As broadly summarized by Leger Executive Vice President Christian Bourque, “if you are a more conservative American, you basically do not like California.”

As further explained by a clip on the KTLA TV website : “Two-thirds of Republicans also said the state’s impact on the country has been a net negative, reflecting large-scale criticism of California and liberal policies … by conservative politicians and media.”

“Meet Cindy, a Sociology major, graduating from UC Berkeley class of 2022!”

(It might be worth noting as well that California with some 39 million people is still the most populous State of the Union at the moment, followed by Texas at not quite 31 million, Florida about 23 million, and New York State not quite 20 million.)

On the other hand, even if you are just a more progressive Canadian chances are that in February 2024 you will like California — and especially Northern California, and especially again the almost exotic San Francisco Bay Area, anchored by the legendary City of San Francisco (where so many left their hearts long ago in the 1960s and 1970s).

Circumnavigating the northern region of the seriously beautiful Bay Area geography

Just to begin our brief meditation here, the overarching theme of our visit with our growing tech support staff in the Golden State this year was summarized by our resident tour guide : Grim reports about the 21st century demise of the 1960s flower-child metropolis are just fake news.

Or as The Economist explained in a virtually coterminous February 12, 2024 article : “How San Francisco staged a surprising comeback … Forget the controversy. America’s tech capital is building the future.”

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Northern California in February 2024

Posted: February 5th, 2024 | No Comments »
City of Albany, Caklifornia in foreground, with Albany Hill closer to east shore of San Francisco Bay, and City of San Francisco off in the distance on west shore of the Bay.

COUNTERWEIGHTS EDITORS, GANATSEKWYAGON, ON. MONDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 2024. Tomorrow most of us among the editorial staff here will be off on our regular visit with technical support staff, now in Albany, California — “on the east shore of San Francisco Bay in northwestern Alameda County … population … 20,271 at the 2020 census.”

Albany, California has a somewhat intriguing history. The area’s “ first known residents,” were the “Costanoans (coast dwellers) or Ohlone” who “lived at the base of Albany Hill along Cerrito Creek … until the early 19th Century, when the Spanish land barons arrived.”

Michael Seward, Family Grouping. 2024. Acrylic. 32” x 40”.

In 1820 “the King of Spain granted a large portion of the East Bay to Don Luis Maria Peralta, who then divided the land among his three sons. Jose Domingo received the northern portion, which included the area of Berkeley and Albany, and used the land for cattle farming.”

The Mexican-American War (1846–1848) and the California gold rush (1848–1855) led to the establishment of California as 31st state of the anglophone USA on September 9, 1850. For a time the area that is now Albany manufactured dynamite. Then in 1906 “the great San Francisco earthquake and fire” led to a “large migration of families from San Francisco to the East Bay.”

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Re Fani Willis — remember Bill Barr on Trump : “Our country can’t be a therapy session for a troubled man like this”

Posted: January 27th, 2024 | No Comments »
Michael Seward, Conception. 2024. Acrylic. 28”sq.

NORTH AMERICAN NOTEBOOK. RANDALL WHITE, FERNWOOD PARK, TORONTO . SATURDAY, JANUARY 27, 2024. (UPDATE FEBRUARY 3 : See Below). I recently read “A Reality Check on the Fani Willis Scandal … Is Trump’s Georgia prosecution about to get derailed?” It’s on the POLITICO site, and it’s by “Ankush Khardori, an attorney and former federal prosecutor in the U.S. Justice Department,” and “a POLITICO Magazine contributing writer.”

This inevitably prompted me to re-examine my own enthusiastic discovery of Ms Willis, as commemorated in a counterweights piece late this past August : ”What Fani Willis has done in Georgia means that Donald Trump is finally not going to get away with his un-creative destruction of democracy in America.”

Having now re-read my earlier piece, I think I’m happy enough to report that it does not live up to the hyperbole of its too-long title seriously. It ends on a note of “makes me think I’m going to have to pray a lot harder than usual!” And of course I wouldn’t go along with quite the same hyperbolic title in January 2024 as I did in August 2023.

In January 2024, eg, there is also much on US TV to suggest that this coming November 5 Donald Trump might not just get away with his past un-creative destruction of democracy in America. He could suddenly be in charge of some new plutocratic autocracy still known as the American republic, but built on the gigantic lie that Trump is the strong arm of some traditional American common man (and his female partner).

Ankush Khardori’s Reality Check on the Fani Willis Scandal

”Fani Willis and Nathan Wade, right, allegedly took lavish trips together, his ex-wife alleges. Getty Images” (NY Post).

Ankush Khardori summarizes the so-called Fani Willis scandal as follows :

“The allegations are far from clear-cut, but here are the basic outlines: Earlier this month, a lawyer for Michael Roman, one of Trump’s co-defendants in the case, filed a motion claiming that Willis and lead prosecutor Nathan Wade have been having a romantic relationship. Willis hired Wade, a private sector lawyer who appears to have limited experience working on complex criminal matters, and he has reportedly been paid more than $600,000 for his work on the prosecution.”

Khardori goes on : “The motion asserts that Wade and Willis have been taking vacations using the fees that Wade has been paid and argues that Willis and Wade have been “profiting significantly from this prosecution at the expense of the taxpayers.” The motion also claims that the two may have committed federal crimes, citing a law known as the honest-services fraud statute.”

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Understanding the Conservative double-digit lead in Canadian opinion polls

Posted: January 16th, 2024 | No Comments »
Michael Seward, In the Woods at Night. 2024. Acrylic. 42”. X 54”.

RANDALL WHITE, FERNWOOD PARK, TORONTO. TUESDAY, JANUARY 16, 2024. The day before yesterday polling guru Philippe J. Fournier @338Canada urged that in the world of Canadian federal politics : “For those counting, this is the 6th consecutive month the Conservatives have been leading the Liberals by double-digits … That’s a stretch longer than Sheer’s lead post-SNC in 2019 or O’Toole’s brief lead in 2021.”

Like many others, I do want to understand all this. And for starters I also think that the double-digit lead between the first and second place parties in opinion polls (to say nothing of the inevitably speculative seat projections for six federal parties) can be more than a little misleading, in trying to understand the political real world.

The 338Canada numbers most relevant to the real world

L to r : Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet, and Green Leader Elizabeth May. Photos Andrew Meade and Sam Garcia.

The Trudeau Liberals and Singh New Democrats, that is to say, are co-operating on a quite flexible but still written agreement, intended to fund and win confidence votes for the Trudeau government, more or less until the next “fixed-date” election in the early fall of 2025.

Similarly, as of M. Fournier’s latest January 14, 2024 update of his 338Canada polling averages, the Liberals and New Democrats together have 45% of the cross-Canada popular vote, compared to the Conservatives 40%. Moreover if you add the Green Party to the LIB-NDP numbers there is a cross-Canada progressive vote of 50%.

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