Archive for April 2011

Canadian federal election 2011 : Orange Crush .. the plot thickens .. or not?

Apr 29th, 2011 | By | Category: In Brief

[UPDATED MAY 1, 3]. Assorted fresh intelligence on what Frank Graves at EKOS christened the “Orange Crush” final days of the 2011 Canadian federal election campaign has now surfaced. (Orange is the NDP’s lead colour – as well as, some historians will be amused to recall, the colour of the Orangemen, who were “Canada’s storm […]

A little more evidence April 25 EKOS poll not altogether out to lunch ..

Apr 27th, 2011 | By | Category: In Brief

[UPDATED MAY 1]. Two additional bits of polling data are now offering some degree of support for the dramatic scenario of change in Canadian federal politics this coming Monday, May 2 posed by the April 25 EKOS poll. (In case you’ve forgotten: Conservatives 33.7%, New Democrats 28.0%, Liberals 23.7%, Greens 7.2%, Bloc Quebecois 6.2%, and […]

Is there any chance April 25 EKOS poll is straw in the wind we’ve been waiting for (well some of us anyway)?

Apr 26th, 2011 | By | Category: In Brief

[UPDATED MAY 1]. Monday, April 25, 2011 was a strange day in the history of the Canadian federal election campaign that will end with the actual vote one week hence, on Monday, May 2. The day began, like almost every other in this campaign (there was a time out for Good Friday) with the results […]

Canadian election 2011 .. now it seems things are starting to get interesting .. maybe (would you believe PM Jack?)

Apr 21st, 2011 | By | Category: In Brief

[UPDATED MAY 1]. I started out earlier today writing about how “surfing the Globe and Mail website for federal election news this day before Good Friday on the Christian calendar can make your head hurt.” After a bit of sweat on my top articles for April 20—21, it became clear that four new opinion polls […]

Will Canada be in a black hole no matter what happens on May 2?

Apr 20th, 2011 | By | Category: In Brief

The Canadian federal election of 2011 started with a lot of wild talk about reckless coalitions. And with a mere 11 days to go now, it’s starting to seem as if that’s how it may end too. It may or may not be a good sign that the imagery has developed somewhat over the past […]

The myth of the competent PM Harper .. and other campaign tales with two long weeks to go ..

Apr 17th, 2011 | By | Category: In Brief

Exactly one week ago I quoted the excellent Douglas Bell’s critical view of the 2011 Canadian federal election campaign: “my guess is that by the end of next week, the numbers will have changed dramatically.”Â  It is now clear that, for the most part, this guess has proved plain wrong. There are a few straws […]

Canadian federal election 2011 at mid-campaign .. Harper if necessary, but not necessarily a Harper government?

Apr 14th, 2011 | By | Category: In Brief

Now that both the English and French TV leaders’ debates are over, some two and a half weeks remain in the 2011 Canadian federal election campaign. And according to Chantal Hébert in the Toronto Star: “Debates keep Harper on road to majority.” At the same time, a Postmedia News report in the Vancouver Sun offers […]

First debate may mean Harper majority is closer .. but what if Iggy turns out like Joe Clark in 1979?

Apr 13th, 2011 | By | Category: In Brief

The first great TV leaders’s debate is over. The second, tonight, is in French, and will have even fewer attentive viewers. And at this juncture, by almost all the conventional measures, it would seem that a Harper Conservative majority of seats in the Parliament at Ottawa is closer than ever. (See, eg: “Harper stays his […]

Will AG’s G8 spending report be the straw that at least breaks the Harper Conservative lead a little?

Apr 11th, 2011 | By | Category: In Brief

[UPDATED APRIL 12]. On January 2, 2006 an article on this site wondered whether the Mounties’ strange announcement of a “criminal investigation into the possibility that Ottawa’s plans for income trusts were leaked” would finally be “the straw that breaks the Liberals’ back?”Â  And it quite arguably was, more or less – close enough for […]

Canadian federal election 2011 .. will the numbers change dramatically by the end of the week?

Apr 10th, 2011 | By | Category: In Brief

We are looking out on the third or middle week of the 2011 Canadian federal election campaign, with the English language leaders’ debate coming on Tuesday, April 12, and the French language debate on Thursday, April 14 (UPDATE: er, make that Wednesday, April 13 now: it turns out Montreal has an important hockey game on […]