NORTH AMERICAN NOTEBOOK. COUNTERWEIGHTS EDITORS, FERNWOOD PARK, TORONTO, 12 FEBRUARY 2022. As the third weekend of protests in Canada alleged to have been inspired by trucker complaints about COVID-19 policy settles in, at least one thing seems increasingly clear.

There have certainly been (and still are) somewhat different protests in different parts of the country — from the federal capital in Ottawa, to Canada-US border actions in Windsor, ON, Sarnia, ON, Emerson, MB, and Coutts, AB, and more intermittent events in Halifax, Quebec City, Toronto, and beyond. Broadly, however, there are two kinds of protests going on everywhere. The essential narrative is a tale of two protests.

The First Tale

The first tale involves comparatively small numbers of unusually dedicated and even clever people, nourished by right-wing conspiracy thinking of one sort or another, rather well-funded (so far?) in some degree by lucrative right-wing pools of money in the land of the friendly giant next door, and finally bent on essentially destructive purposes.

(As in “Rand Paul urges truckers to disrupt Super Bowl and come to DC : ‘I hope they clog up cities’.” Or in a particular Canadian setting the ultimate demand is the resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau — sometimes politely viewed by friendly relations next door as a quietly leading exponent in office of the global liberal democratic and progressive agenda.)

The Second Tale

The second and more ultimately consequential tale involves a much and in the end very much larger group of “ordinary Canadians” — some of whom are swelling the intermittent numbers in Ottawa and beyond, and many others who are just watching on TV like the rest of us (unless you live in Ottawa, or the Windsor-Detroit Area, or Coutts, AB, etc).

These are Canadians who, for many different of their own good reasons, support the protest against the Canadian public health regulatory regime to fight COVID-19 that the trucker’s protest in its highest rhetorical incarnation has come to stand for (Freedom Convoy 2022 — which does have the ring of something concocted by an ad agency).

Even from a left-wing perspective (especially the kind of left-libertarian ethos that Bill Maher may be quietly voicing in the USA today?) there is a critique to be made, in the name of freedom, of the (sometimes excessive?) public health regulatory regime that has sprung up at federal, provincial, and municipal levels of government in Canada, to combat the global pandemic.

Even before the trucker’s protest first arrived in Ottawa three weeks ago, the Canadian regime (in all its municipal, provincial, and federal diversity and complexity) was beginning to gradually dismantle itself — carefully, cautiously, prudently, keeping everyone safe, and so forth. (And following broader trends on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean and beyond in the wide Pacific.)

Second Tale Demography

Two recent online polls from the Leger organization give us some initial rough sense of the demographic weight and heft of the second tale of pandemic public health regime protest — at its greatest (and most politically relevant and potent) extent.

To start with, in response to the question : “Overall, do you support the message the trucker convoy (also known as Freedom Convoy) protests are conveying of no vaccine mandates and less public health measures, or do you oppose the message?” among 1,546 respondents 17% Strongly support, 15% Somewhat support , 15% Somewhat oppose, 47% Strongly oppose , and 7 % Don’t know. Or, boiled right down, 32% Canadians support the protests, 62% oppose them.

The Leger data on this poll also show three particular regional and age-group spins on these numbers. Opposition to the protests is strongest on the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, and weakest in the Prairie Provinces. In Alberta 40% support the protests versus 25% next door in BC. Only 28% in urban areas support the protests versus 39% in rural areas. And 39% of Canadians 18–34 years old support the protests, versus only 22% aged 55 or more.

Leger has still more recently provided another intriguing result from its online poll : “Is it time to lift all restrictions related to Covid” : No: 58%, Yes: 32%, Unsure: 10%.

Some still more recent online polling from the Maru organization tells a broadly similar story.

When asked to agree or disagree with “Canada’s Democracy Is Being Threatened By A Group Of Protesters And They Must Be Stopped Immediately” 64% Agree, and 36% Disagree. On “These Truckers Are Being Heavily Funded And Supported By Foreign Interests” 67% Agree and 33% Disagree. On “I Support Using The Canadian Armed Forces In A Support Role To Clear Out Trucks With Heavy Tow Vehicles” 64% Agree and 36% Disagree.

But what happens next ??

You could say all these numbers show a rather clear majority of Canadians (and in all regions) do not support Freedom Convoy 2022, and do support the present public health regulatory regimes in all 10 provinces, three territories, and umpteen different municipalities. The system works, etc.

On the other hand, broadly speaking about a third of all Canadians do not support the present anti-COVID public health regimes in Canada. (Even though they have brought us some 35,000 COVID deaths as opposed to the 90,000 we would have, if we were effectively keeping pace with the friendly giant next door.)

This third of all Canadians do apparently support the trucker protests (which are directly affecting very few of us … yet). They do not support “Using The Canadian Armed Forces” to end the protests even just “In A Support Role.”

They are a not inconsiderable number in our free and democratic society in Canada today. And whatever else worrying about them does seem one key reason for official caution on such admirable pleas as Andrew Cohen’s recent : “The Ottawa occupation is the October Crisis revisited. Justin Trudeau must be bold .”