2021 Canadian election last-half log, V : are people of Canada just saying world may have changed since 2019 but we haven’t?

Sep 16th, 2021 | By | Category: In Brief
Some Canadian people venting their anger at politicians during the 2021 federal election campaign.

COUNTERWEIGHTS EDITORS, EAST TORONTO OFFICE. THURSDAY 16 SEPTEMBER 2021. [UPDATED SPTEMBER 17]. With just four days to go we”™re detecting a somewhat strange mood.

There are hardly any election signs on the old streetcar-suburb street that hosts our global corporate headquarters. Even some noted political commentators on Twitter and elsewhere are saying they just wish it was over.

We”™re a bit off on the campaign ourselves. Our office wisdom is that it will be a low turnout election this coming Monday, September 20 – possibly as low as the current record of 58.8% in 2008, when Stephen Harper tried unsuccessfully to convert his Conservative minority government of 2006 into a majority government. (That would have to wait until 2011.)

There is one maverick in our group, who points eg to the recent Canadian Press report “Around 5.8M Canadians voted in advanced polls – nearly 1M more than 2019.” But most of us are saying this just shows how many are keen to get it all over with, and tune out all the grating noise.

(1) Numbers, numbers, numbers … take us back to 2019 …

Some Canadian people showing their admiration for politicians during the 2021 federal election campaign.

Meanwhile, as of 9:27 AM on Thursday, September 16 Éric Grenier’s CBC Poll Tracker has the Trudeau Liberals very slightly ahead of the O”™Toole Conservatives in Canada-wide popular vote (31.7% to 31.2%). The Singh NDP is at 20.1%, BQ 6.4%, PPC 6.2%, and GRN 3.3%.

As far as what actually counts – seats in the Canadian House of Commons (where 170 is a bare majority) – the September 16 Poll Tracker update has 150 Liberals, 120 Conservatives, 38 New Democrats, 29 Bloc Québécois, and one Green Party (in the real world likely Elizabeth May”™s Saanich—Gulf Islands seat in BC).

Mmmm … in case you”™re thinking this looks a little familiar, take another look at the seats actually won in the 2019 election, which also gave the Trudeau Liberals a minority government : 157 Liberals, 121 Conservatives, 32 Bloc Québécois, 24 New Democrats, 3 Green Party.

Election time in Penetanguishene, Ontario.

As some analysts have been quietly noting for a while, so far the polling on the 2021 Canadian election this September 20 does look strikingly similar to the 2019 results.

(The main difference is that the Liberals do somewhat worse in 2021 while the NDP does better : it”™s another Liberal minority government kept in office by a few more New Democrats than last time!)

To support this outlook further, the Nanos Daily Ballot Tracking numbers released his morning (September 16) are :

LIB 31.9%, CON 30.3%, NDP 21.2%, PPC 6.7%, BQ 6.4%, GRN 3.2%.

And for still further evidence see Abacus Data”™s new Daily #elxn44 Tracking: September 16 :

LIB 34%, CON 30%, NDP 21%, BQ 6%, PPC 5%, GRN 3%.

(2) Our old posts remember how it was a Liberal minority government in 2019 too

Again in the end, as we get closer to election day, the Canadian election of 2021 does seem about to finish much like the election of 2019 – another Liberal minority government.

To confirm this analogy, we”™ve just reviewed the titles of our own last four counterweights election logs from 2019 :

III : Is unstable Scheer Conservative minority government a real prospect … mmm yes ??” ;

IV : Looking a Conservative minority government straight in the eye”;

V: How about back to the future of Pierre Trudeau”™s second election in 1972 (again) ??” ;

VI : ???? (or is it finally starting to gel as Lib minority gov that will last who knows how long??).”

Again (again) the 2019 story told by these four titles does at this moment seem remarkably similar to the story that appears to be unfolding (again) in 2021.

(3) But what about Nova Scotia 2021 ????

Of course the current numbers are also consistent with at least two other potential big surprises. To take the CBC Poll Tracker for today (September 16) as just one example, there is a 59% “Probability of the Liberals winning the most seats but not a majority,” 27% probability of a Conservative minority government, 12% of a Liberal majority, and 1% of a Conservative majority.

(And note that back in the middle of this August 2021, “338Canada was reporting only a 14% chance that Tim Houston”™s Progressive Conservatives would win the most seats let alone a majority government in Nova Scotia.” And a majority government is what they finally won!)

It is a good thing about democratic politics that in elections almost anything can happen. But if we had to bet money right now we too would bet on another Liberal minority government on September 20. The greatest mystery is just the exact number of seats each party will win.

On the other hand (yet again), with just four days to go our Geiger counters are detecting a somewhat strange mood out in the vast northern wilderness geography, coast to coast to coast … We live in unusual times. “Almost anything might happen” remains the best note to end on right now.

UPDATE SEPTEMBER 17 : Nanos Daily Tracking released earlier today had LIB 31.9%, CON 30.4%, NDP 20.3%, PPC 7.5%, BQ 5.8%, GRN 3.2%. Abacus Daily Tracking this afternoon reported LIB 33%, CON 32%, NDP 21%, BQ 6%, PPC 5%, GRN 2%. Today’s CBC Poll Tracker seat projection = LIB 153, CON 118, NDP 37, BQ 29, GRN 1. 338Canada projected LIB 146, CON 126, NDP 34, BQ 31, GRN 2. A CTV News article quoting Nick Nanos summed up his eminent view of the prospects as they looked on the morning of September 17, 2021 : “Nanos said the most likely outcome is that the Liberals will form a minority government; however, a Liberal majority is ‘not out of the realm of possibility”™ either.”

Tags: , , , , , , ,

Leave Comment