RANDALL WHITE, TORONTO. FRIDAY, JUNE 5, 2026. Two recent polls suggest this coming fall’s Alberta separatist referendum is not at all likely to lead to any actual separation from the rest of Canada.

Ipsos, in the field May 28–June 1, 2026, found “Limited and Declining Support for Separation in Alberta … Only 18% say they would vote for separation if a binding referendum is held; This is a decline of 10-points from 28% support in January 2026 … More than seven-in-ten (72%) Albertans currently support the referendum option to stay in Canada … Ten percent of Albertans are undecided, will not vote or prefer not to answer..”

Leger, similarly last in the field on June 1, found “73% of Albertans say Alberta should remain part of Canada, while 15% say it should become an independent country.”

There are some subtleties in both polls. Ipsos found that : “Currently, only two-in-ten (19%) Albertans say they would vote for the option to hold a future binding referendum on separation,” as in the exact question to be asked in the (as it were preliminary or merely exploratory ) fall referendum Premier Smith has announced.

Leger found that while only 15% would support an independent Alberta, an additional 6% would support “joining the United States.”

In both Ipsos and Leger polls, however, more than 70% of Albertans would support remaining in Canada. And this compares favourably enough with the 60% of Quebecers who voted to stay in Canada in the 1980 Quebec referendum (on ”sovereignty association”).

Ipsos also reports that : “By region, support for moving ahead with a binding separation referendum is lowest in Calgary (14%), slightly higher in Edmonton (18%) and highest in the rest of Alberta (27%).”

Calgary is arguably the place that would be most adversely affected by any economic troubles brought on by independence (like Montreal in Quebec). And the lowest referendum support in Calgary adds up from this angle.

(Note too that the latest Leger poll finds : “Albertans are also considering what the debate could mean for the province’s economy. A majority believe the referendum and ongoing discussions about separation will have a negative impact on Alberta’s economy, while fewer than one-quarter expect a positive impact.”)

Ipsos found as well that : “By current party vote preference, UCP [United Conservative Party] supporters have a narrow preference to stay in Canada (50%) versus hold a binding separation referendum (40%). NDP voters overwhelmingly prefer to stay (92% vs. 5% hold a binding separation referendum). Undecided party voters also strongly prefer the stay option (74% vs. 9% hold a binding separation referendum).”

All this no doubt suggests that there are few serious reasons for those of us in the rest of Canada to worry too much about separatism in Alberta.

Whatever else, it is less than an anglophone version of separatism in francophone-majority Quebec.

These latest Ipsos and Leger polls leave further grounds as well to wonder about the wisdom of Premier Smith’s poking this particular hornet’s nest in Canadian politics.

Separatism is certainly an issue inside her party (with its various connections to various gurgling pots of water next door in the current Trumpian USA).

But it is not something looked on with great interest by close to three-quarters of Alberta’s more than five million “free and democratic” Canadians.