COUNTERWEIGHTS EDITORS. GANATSEKWYAGON, ON. , MONDAY, APRIL 21, 2025. UPDATED. SATURDAY 26 APRIL/SUNDAY 27 APRIL 2025. SCROLL BELOW FOR UPDATE TEXT. The 2025 Canadian federal election, which may or may not be “the most important election of our lives, ” will take place exactly one week from today.

It says a lot about how short, sweet, and sometimes more or less elevated a campaign it has been over the past few weeks that this is the first time we counterweights editors have pulled ourselves together for some group comment.

We start with the French and then English TV debates — Wednesday 16 April and Thursday 17 April this past week. The Canadian Press report on the second English debate is headlined : “’You, sir, are not a change’: Party leaders target Carney in final election debate.”

To all of us the trouble with Poilievre’s rhetoric that “You, sir, are not a change” is that Mark Carney in some apparently crucial sense is for many a welcome change from Justin Trudeau.

And insofar as there are some Trudeau Liberal cabinet carry-overs, that is, as Carney himself urged in the English debate, a good thing. It seasons the fresh new faces with hard-earned experience and outstanding talent.

Or as Globe and Mail columnist Lawrence Martin tweeted/X-posted after the English contest : “Carney’s best debate moment. ‘I know it may be difficult, Mr. Poilievre, you spent years running against Justin Trudeau and the carbon tax. They’re both gone, okay? They’re both gone.’”

(1) “This is what democracy looks like … when the debate is over”

Some of us around the boardroom table here (and on the office TV room sofas for the evenings of April 16 and 17) were slightly impressed that both debates were broadcast from Montreal on the St. Lawrence River.

It seemed to fit the possibly historic 2025 election that the TV debates came from the ancient metropolis of the east-west multicultural Fur Trade in Canada. (Which was brought to its historic peak by the North West Company [1779–1821], forerunner of the 1867 confederation that still endures, having acquired a Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms in 1982.)

Here at counterweights.ca we have at least agreed that our own most fundamental feelings about the debates were largely captured in a tweet/post by the Quebec Liberal activist and sometime Justin Trudeau advisor Jonathan Kalles.

The Tweet/Xpost was placed over a video of contestants shaking hands, being polite, and even somewhat friendly at the end of the English encounter : “This is what democracy looks like. This is what’s supposed to happen when the debate is over. This is what makes Canada great.”

Even if all this doesn’t quite make Canada great in the most real world, it at least induces a more settled and agreeable public life (if also more modest of course), especially than what now prevails under Donald Trump’s second disastrous administration of the USA, USA today.

We apparently agree as well that Pierre Poilievre did present an almost respectable future prime minister in the English debate in particular. Under attack as current frontrunner, however, Carney also did as well defending himself as he had to, or even somewhat better. And this seems clearly enough reflected in the opinion polls immediately after the two debates. At the same time, some pundits were nonetheless saying that Liberals should still be suitably worried. And it seems that we all cautiously agree with this too.

(2) 6 of 7 polls added today had Mark Carney’s Liberals ahead by from 5 to 8 points

Meanwhile, at the less Liberal-worrying end of the 2025 election odyssey, at 4:38 PM, April 21, 2025, Philippe J. Fournier@338Canada posted his latest Update of “Federal polls added today” on his 338Canada poll aggregation site.

Six of seven polls added — from Angus Reid, Liaison, MQO, Nanos, Pollara, and Research Co. — had Mark Carney’s Liberals ahead, by from 5 to 8 points. One poll, from Mainstreet Research, had Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives tied.

Mainstreet has also brought out earlier polls quite recently that had the Conservatives slightly ahead of the Liberals. At the same time, Mainstreet has a somewhat controversial history of mis-predicting conservative or right-wing victories in two elections won by the so-called liberal left — the 2017 Calgary mayoral contest, and a 2019 provincial by-election in BC.

Mainstreet has been closer to the mark in full-scale federal and provincial elections since 2019. According to Wikipedia : “In a comparison of polling results with election results, Mainstreet was ranked fourth in Canada by polling analyst Philippe J. Fournier.”

In any event there will be more to come on election night… and possibly before … with absolutely no doubt.

Meanwhile again, for all of us here the recent rather sudden rise of Mark Carney in Canadian federal politics has been like manna falling from heaven … And we’re certainly hoping that the 6 out of 7 polls added today finally prove right on the money …

UPDATE SATURDAY 26 APRIL/SUNDAY 27 APRIL 2025 : The Liberal worriers are back as the April 28 election day looms closer and closer.

Among the most worrisome numbers, The Signal, the Toronto Star’s polling aggregator, has been showing the Liberals a mere 1.1 points ahead of the Conservatives on April 24, 0.8 points ahead on April 25, and only 0.7 points ahead on April 26.

On the morning of April 26 the CP24 TV news channel in Southern Ontario posted a somewhat less stringent worrisome report for Mark Carney’s party : “JUST IN: Liberal lead narrows to 3 points over Conservatives with movement in battleground Ontario: Nanos.”

At 10:46 on the morning of April 26 Judy Trinh — “National Political and Investigative Correspondent for CTVNews . Previously with CBCNews. Former Refugee. Hockey mom” — tweeted/Xposted “Canadians bombarded with rightwing content on Musk’s X ahead of election,” quoting a headline from the (now Japanese owned) Financial Times in the UK.

On the other hand, in the early evening of April 26 (7:02 PM in fact) Polling Canada noted 7 polls with new numbers. All of them still had Liberals leading over Conservatives by 3 to 5 points (with a strong median of 4 points).

Former Liberal PM Jean Chretien who, at 91 years old, has been out boosting Liberal candidates in the Greater Toronto Area, has also now predicted that it will be a Mark Carney Liberal majority government when all the votes are counted this coming Monday.

The pollsters who also do seat projections seem to agree. And the (somewhat lefty?) veteran pollster Frank Graves has just tweeted/Xposted (at 12:06 AM on April 27) “flash!! New data. Massive LPC majority” (where LPC of course is “Liberal Party of Canada”). It turns out the new EKOS polling data in this case shows the Liberals 9 points ahead of the Conservatives. But this is not all that unusual for EKOS polls in the more recent past.

While strongly supporting Mark Carney for Prime Minister of Canada ourselves, we’re as a group professionally inclined (as it were) to wait for the actual results on Monday, before jumping to any big conclusions about the Canadian future …

APRIL 27 UPDATE : Very very sadly, BC Premier David Eby has posted : “Shocked & heartbroken to hear of the lives lost & those injured at the Lapu Lapu festival. Police are investigating & a suspect is in custody. We are in contact with the City of Vancouver and will provide any support needed. My thoughts are with the victims and their loved ones.”

The Vancouver Police have further explained that on the evening of April 26 : “A number of people have been killed and multiple others are injured after a driver drove into a crowd at a street festival at E. 41st Avenue and Fraser shortly after 8 p.m. tonight. The driver is in custody. We will provide more information as the investigation unfolds.”

As in so many other cases our grief here at this tragic event is boundless. In broad outline, what appears to be a crazed individual with mental health issues, already known to police, drove into a crowd celebrating a Vancouver Philippine community festival, killing 11 and wounding many others.

Mark Carney took time off from the last hours of campaigning to serve as prime minister in the midst of a tragic event for all Canadians. The other three leaders all offered messages of condolence to those most directly affected. As did many others, around the world.

Meanwhile, at 10:46 PM this evening Philippe J. Fournier@338Canada posted what he called the Final Canadian Polls “As of April 27, 2025, 10:45 pm ET”. Results from 13 different final polls were presented. All show the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives by from 2 to 6 points — again with a clear median 4-point Liberal lead, in 5 of the 13 cases.

Of course, of course, even with such comparative uniformity on the eve of election day, 13 polls could all be wrong. And 13 is certainly a traditionally unlucky number. Or it’s true enough that a 2-point lead is not much, and two of the 13 final polls do show only a 2-point Liberal lead.

The complexities of polling are further illustrated by the case of EKOS, which seemed to be quietly suggesting late last night a 9-point Liberal lead in its latest work. This has now dropped to a 6-point lead (still the only lead this great in M. Fournier’s final 13 polls). And the posted EKOS material seems to imply some further ambiguity over even this current number!

Whatever, with the digital clock having now passed into the actual April 28 election day itself, we will ourselves soberly refrain from all further comment until the results are finally known. In this case as well, it is simply a plain matter of fact to say may the best man win, in what the Constitution Act, 1982 quietly but firmly alludes to as our “free and democratic society” in Canada today.

RESULTS as of 1 PM ET April 29, 2025 :

	Lib.	Cons.	B.Q.	N.D.P.	Other
Seats Leading:	168	144	23	7	1	343
% of votes:	43.5%	41.4%	6.4%	6.3%	2.4%	100.0%

Polls Reporting: 74,943 of 75,479 (99.29 %)

Voter Turnout: 19,224,755 of 28,525,638 registered electors (67.39 %) — does not include electors who registered on election day.