2021 Canadian election last-half log, IV : continuing close race makes you wonder— could California recall vote Sep 14 have some impact on Canada Sep 20?

Sep 13th, 2021 | By | Category: In Brief
“Some Things Will Never Be Known” by Michael Seward, September 2021.

COUNTERWEIGHTS EDITORS, EAST TORONTO OFFICE. MONDAY 13 SEPTEMBER 2021 [UPDATED SEPTEMBER 15] : With exactly a week to go there are some slight (and vague and altogether vastly uncertain) hints of the Trudeau Liberals’ inching-ahead, at least enough to keep their minority government next Monday, September 20. (Maybe?)

At the same time, even with a final mini-surging Peoples Party of Canada vote on the far right, the O’Toole Conservative numbers continue to show impressive strength. As it looks right now, no assiduous numbers-watcher would be surprised to see either a Liberal or a Conservative minority government at the end of it all next week.

Statistics tell the story : quick review

On a quick summary, the 338Canada numbers for September 13 have the two parties in a virtual tie — 32% each on the cross-Canada popular vote. The Liberals and their more geographically spread-out vote finally take 146 seats to 126 for the Conservatives (again where 170 is a bare majority in a 338-member House).

The CBC Poll Tracker for September 13 actually has the Liberals slightly ahead in the popular vote (32% to 31%). Here they also take 155 seats (just two less than in 2019) with the Conservatives at only118. (And NDP 35, BQ 29, GRN 1.)

Meanwhile, Liberal supporters can continue to take heart from the September 13 Nanos Daily Ballot Tracking numbers : LIB 33.2%, CON 30.2%, NDP 18.6%, BQ 6.8%, PPC 6.6%, GRN 3.8%. This does seem as well a case where strong recent PPC support is having some impact on weakening the Conservative vote.

(Liberals might enthuse : at last a conservative counterweight to the progressive New Democrats, with a correct bow to the French fact in leader Maxime Bernier? And yet again note “Singh’s recent dip in support might indicate NDP supporters swinging to Liberals: Nanos.”)

Beware of the anti-Liberal bear (attack dog etc)

There are nonetheless many good reasons for Trudeau Liberals to beware of the bear and work still harder as the PM might say. SNC-Lavalin (S&C what, some voters might ask?) is in the air again. We are down to the short strokes.

It really is altogether possible that even the O’Toole Conservatives who aren’t seriously at all like old-style progressive conservatives in Canada (as the Globe and Mail has just public spiritedly underlined) could wind up with at least the most seats.

(And with a widely recognized right to at least try to form a new non-Liberal minority government on the banks of the Ottawa River.)

Then again the CBC Poll Tracker is also currently projecting a 17% chance of an actual Liberal majority government! (Note that polls beforehand were projecting a 14% chance of Tim Houston’s authentic old-school Progressive Conservative surprise victory in the August 17 provincial election in Nova Scotia.) Which would be the biggest surprise of all!

Could the Golden State point to the future on September 14 ??

With crucial technical support for our Toronto, Canada editorial offices now in the busy exurbs of Sacramento County, CA, we have particular reasons for taking some special interest in California Governor Gavin Newsom’s recall election tomorrow, Tuesday, September 14.

We’ve speculated casually for a while now that an actual defeat (or “recall”) of progressive Democratic Governor Newsom could reflect some continental right-wing surge (or what some recent US commentators have called “A Coming Conservative Ascendency”) that could work to the O’Toole Conservative advantage on September 20 in Canada.

The latest FiveThirtyEight polling aggregations, however, suggest an average of 57.5% of likely California voters on September 14 want to “Keep” Governor Newsom, while only 40.8% want to “Remove” him.

And now we wonder : If the Democratic Governor wins handily enough in the Golden State (which has slightly more people than all of Canada), could that work to the advantage of Justin Trudeau’s Liberals (and/or Jagmeet Singh’s New Democrats), in what the great economic historian of the Canadian fur-trade Harold Innis liked to call “northern North America”?

UPDATE SEPTEMBER 15, 1:15 AM EDT : According to FiveThirtyEight with 65% of Expected Vote Reporting, 66% have voted NO to the question “Should Gov. Newsom be removed from office,” and 34% have voted YES. Analysts advise that as the rest of the vote is counted over the next few days the YES side share is almost certain to grow somewhat. But there is no doubt that Gavin Newsom has handily defeated the Recall. Whatever else, the “Coming Conservative Ascendancy” has not come in California. (Which is hardly surprising, but nonetheless now a hard fact.) Will the “progressive left” victory here have any bearing on our September 20 Canadian election? We shall wait and see!

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