For those who still think the Central Canadian mind is worth pondering, two somewhat contradictory recent Globe and Mail opinion columns on the current state of Canadian federal politics are probably worth a bit of further attention : John Ibbitson’s  “Harper’s moment to entrench Conservative politics has arrived,” in yesterday’s print edition, followed promptly today by Lawrence Martin on “Higher taxation is back on the table.”

Very crudely, these two in some ways quite fine examples of the mainstream pundit’s craft wind up speaking first for the new Harper Conservative majority government now in office (Ibbitson, of course), and then for the equally new official opposition New Democrats (with only one hasty allusion to the once so masterful “Grits” – and the author here is of course Lawrence Martin)

To me at least, in the end neither piece is all that convincing, despite assorted other strong virtues. And at least one key reason, I think, is that Canada writ large – even in its component regional parts, with special reference to the last best wild west – really does not conform to the kinds of assumptions that would make either Stephen Harper’s ostensibly pristine right-wing or Brian Topp’s aggressive left-wing ideological vision (or whoever finally wins the gathering NDP leadership race) a serious guide to political reality, down on the ground, where the rubber hits the road, etc, etc.

Part of what I’m thinking here may have something to do with the between-the-lines fact that I have recently returned from lunch with two semi-retired leading luminaries of Ontario government and politics. (And I should confess that I am more or less semi-retired myself, though far from a leading luminary in any real-world arena.)  But a more important part applies in both official languages, in all regions of what Mackenzie King called our “too much geography,” and even in the most ancient native traditions of what sections 25 and 35 of the Constitution Act 1982 call “the aboriginal peoples of Canada.”

Part of the ultimate Central Canadian proof here is that Dalton McGuinty lives on as Ontario Premier, albeit with a mere “major minority” government. (And the other part, if you like, is the  59 NDP MP s from Quebec in the 41st Canadian federal Parliament, elected this past May 2.)

But the most intriguing broader proof almost certainly lies in the argument  that the biggest impact of Stephen Harper’s success in Ottawa is not in Ottawa itself. Some of us at any rate may be pardoned for believing that Mr. Harper’s greatest achievements to date have been the election of Naheed Nenshi as Mayor of Calgary, and the election of Alison Redford as leader of the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party, and new Premier of Canada’s Wild Rose Province. (And note that Mayor Nenshi placed second in a recent popularity poll “ that looked at Canada’s 15 largest cities,” while Mr. Harper’s friend, Mayor Ford of Toronto, placed second last!)

Or, as one of the leading luminaries at lunch put it: “we’re centre left – and more centre than left.” (And this reminds me of the “traditions” personified by Ontario’s longest-lasting premier, according to his most recent biographer: “strict public morality, competent, businesslike administration, and cautiously progressive social and economic policies in substantial harmony with the ideals of the people.”)

Why we in the true north strong and free are quite so profoundly attached to this kind of cautious progressive political culture is a question we also discussed at lunch, without coming to a conclusion. Back at the office, and as a fellow traveller on the recent trip down south organized by this website’s Northern California sponsors, it struck me that our rugged northern climate in our rugged northern geography – which affects all regions, in both official languages and beyond – probably has something to do with the answer. At any rate, all political thought of this sort does suggest that the real long-term future of the new more polarized right-left federal scene that is supposed to be what we have in Ottawa nowadays remains quite significantly in doubt.