RANDALL WHITE. HOME AND NATIVE LAND. FERNWOOD PARK, TORONTO. FRIDAY, AUGUST 21, 2026. Through no fault of my own or that of anyone at all close, I live in one of the three Canadian federal electoral districts (or ridings in the old school lexicon) where a byelection is taking place this coming Monday, August 31 — only 10 days away.

Judging by traditional election signage in front of houses and apartment buildings and so forth, you might be hard-pressed to know that a local federal election is just 10 days away. At the same time, from those who run sign campaigns I have learned that a lot of signs finally just means a strong well-organized sign campaign in some technical sense. — and not too much more.

(I should also confess that we have a small sign in front of our house. This is entirely the result of my TV-watching-partner’s down-on-the-ground action — with my prior agreement. In the interests of objective reporting, I will not reveal who our sign is supporting!)

Today’s Rabble Review is headlined “NDP feels momentum growing in run up to Beaches-East York by-election.” But M. Fournier at 338Canada would not be impressed His Beaches—East York numbers for August 16, 2026 put Liberals at 62% , NDP 18%, and Conservatives 15%. It will take A LOT of momentum over the next 10 days to carry the New Democrats into anything close to Liberal territory, if M. Fournier is anywhere close to the real world.

I have seen public polling numbers as well that suggest Mark Carney’s Liberals have at least some prospects of winning all three August 31 byelections. Least likely may be Chicoutimi-Le Fjord in Quebec. Here an August 15, 2026 post from Polling Canada put the Liberals at 35%, Bloc Québécois 31%, and Conservatives 26%. An August 9, 2026 Polling Canada post for the bylection in North Vancouver-Capilano put the Liberals at 54%, Conservatives 31%, NDP 10% — not quite as Liberal-likely as Beaches-East York in Toronto, but close. (And the east-end Toronto Beaches are sometimes locally critiqued as a den of “Vancouver wannabees.”)

Setting aside the relative dearth of signs for any party in Beaches-East York, one thing that has impressed me is the number of times Liberal campaigners have been at my door or on my phone. Meanwhile, I have heard or seen virtually nothing from either NDP or Conservative campaigners. When I suggested to one Liberal activist at my door that his party was likely enough to win the riding on August 31, he agreed but said it was still important to beat the bushes.

It is easy to be cynical about the Liberal Party of Canada — and I often enough give in to this easy feeling myself. It is to no small extent a party of opportunists and political professionals — people who are in politics especially to satisfy a raw hunger for political power. But right now in the byelection electoral district where I live the Liberals are also a party standing up for local democracy in a very democratic country (at least as such things are judged in the world today) And I also give them high marks for that.

The Linerals in Canada today are as well a party standing up for Mark Carney. The doorknob flyer for Liberal candidate Tanveer Shahnawaz that someone dropped off at my house has a photo of PM Carney right beside Mr. Shahnawaz. This is a riding that takes pollster Nik Nanos’s August 14, 2026 Preferred Prime Minister numbers to heart : Carney: 53%, Poilievre: 18%, Lewis: 5%, May: 4%, Blanchet: 3%, Bernier: 2%, Unsure: 17%. This is a riding where many people believe that, whatever your ultimate ideological or philosophical convictions may be, Liberal PM Mark Carney is the right guy in the right place at the right time right now.

Along with Mr. Shahnawaz (one of whose former teachers has been around to my door, assuring me that Tanveer Shahnawaz is a smart guy who has already worked hard for the Beaches-East York community) …

Shannon Devine is running in the riding for the NDP, Jim Sybros for the Conservative Party of Canada, Bruce Livesey for the Green Party, Michel Lachance for the People’s Party of Canada, and Cameron Thomas for the Canadian Future Party.

I admire and warmly applaud all these hard-working Canadian people, standing up for freedom and democracy in one of our present world’s (say) 20 most democratic countries (on various technical ranking schemes).

But in the end I will be surprised if Liberal candidate Tanveer Shahnawaz is not the winner in Beaches-East York (perhaps with not quite as much as 62% of the vote), when all the ballots are counted on the evening of August 31, 2026.