Citizen X on Canadian election 2015, V .. now new Ekos poll says Conservatives close to “majority government” ??

Sep 24th, 2015 | By | Category: In Brief

Waiting for a majority government to fall from heaven ... while watching fireworks at the Calgary Stampede, Friday, July 4, 2014. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh.

It is a sign of something that only two days ago I was writing about how a new Ipsos poll finally had the Trudeau Liberals leading the Canadian federal election race that will end Monday, October 19.

But now I am reporting that a new Ekos poll says the Harper Conservatives have surged dramatically ahead — with 35.4% support, compared with only 26.3% for the Liberals and  24.5% for the Mulcair New Democrats.

Frank Graves at Ekos goes on to say : ““If (the Conservatives) keep those numbers up they’re very close to a majority — if not there already … The numbers are about as good as we had for the final weekend of polling (in the 2011 election) when they achieved their majority.”

As in the case of the Ipsos poll two days ago, the first thing to say about this new Ekos poll is that “these results are not exactly confirmed by other recent polling intelligence.”

Laureen Harper offers Justin Trudeau some Twizzlers at an Ottawa bash thrown by the Conservative Heritage Minister in the spring of 2010. Would she do the same in 2015 if he does become the new prime minister? Well, why not! Why can’t we all just get along?

The Ekos poll with the Conservatives notably ahead at 35.4% covers the period September 17–22. Yet the Nanos daily tracking poll for September 20–22 reported 31.6% for the Liberals, 31.5% for the Conservatives, and 29.1% for the NDP.

Today’s Nanos daily tracking poll for September 21–23 reports 31.5% for the Liberals, 30.8% for the NDP, and (in third place, though by a very slender margin) 30.5% for the Conservatives.

(Canadian pollsters Ekos and Ipsos might seem too fond of Greek names, in tendentious homage to the pioneering political theory of Plato and Aristotle in the old Western tradition. But Nanos is actually pollster Nik Nanos’s surname.)

Finally, a Leger poll for September 21-23 reports Liberals and Conservatives tied at 31% and the NDP at 28%.

And Eric Grenier’s CBC Poll Tracker averages as “Updated September 24, 2015, including polling in the field to September 23, 2015” — and taking account of all these recent polls together — are currently reporting the Harper Conservatives at 31.3%, the Trudeau II Liberals at 30.3%, and the Mulcair New Democrats at 28.9%.

Passing the torch to a new kind of leadership in Canada (and Quebec) ... ????

For the moment, I just have two concluding thoughts.

First, if the Harper Conservatives finally do win another clear majority of seats in the Canadian House of Commons with less than 40% of the cross-Canada popular vote, a lot of mere progressive voters are really going to start wondering whether we actually need two progressive political parties in Canada today.

Second, the latest Bloomberg politics poll reports that “Four in 10 Americans want wall on Canadian border.”

Again, suppose even less than four in 10 Canadians who bother to vote on October 19 finally do give the Harper Conservatives another majority of seats in the elected Ottawa parliament. Some will wonder how much more credible that can really be than building “a physical wall along the more than 5,000-mile border” between Canada and the United States? And what does it say about North America today etc, etc … ????

Oh, and btw, exactly four weeks ago today, on August 27, 2015, the Toronto Star ran this rather different headline, based on a report from Forum Research : “NDP in reach of majority, new poll suggests … A new poll puts the NDP with 40% support, with the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives in second place with 30%. The Tories have 23%.”

So who knows just what will really happen three weeks and three days from now, when the Canadian people who count finally make their decisions in church gymnasiums and other such public places across the land? The smart money is still saying stay tuned.

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