Citizen X on Canadian election 2015, IV .. new Ipsos poll etc : are the Trudeau II Liberals ahead .. at last (maybe)?

Sep 22nd, 2015 | By | Category: In Brief

Ipsos poll for Global News, September 18–21, 2015.

Yesterday at 4 PM ET the Global News site posted the latest maybe interesting story about the ongoing Canadian federal election campaign, which now has a little less than four weeks left until voting day, Monday, October 19.

The story reported the results of the latest Ipsos poll for Global News : “Liberals pull ahead of NDP, as support in Ontario grows.”  And : “This poll was conducted between September 18 and September 21, with a sample of 1,103 Canadians from Ipsos’ online panel.”

The Canada-wide % support numbers found by the poll were Liberals 33%, New Democrats 30%, Conservatives 27%, Bloc Quebecois 4%, Green Party 3%. As noted, these Canada-wide numbers also had a lot to do with particular regional results : “Liberals lead in Ontario, NDP leads in Quebec, Tories take Alberta.” Or, more exactly : “The Liberals enjoy 41% support in Ontario, a sizeable lead over the Conservatives at 32 % and the NDP at 24%.”

No one paying serious attention to the 2015 Canadian federal election will of course be surprised to hear that these results are not exactly confirmed by other recent polling intelligence.

Eric Grenier’s averages on the CBC Poll Tracker, eg — “Updated September 21, 2015, including polling in the field to September 20, 2015” — reported Conservatives 30.5%, New Democrats 29.8%, and Liberals 29.6%.

Ipsos poll for Global News, September 18–21, 2015.

At the same time, this particular Poll Tracker did not yet include the latest Ipsos poll for Global News, which put the Liberals so clearly ahead. Mr. Grenier’s averages at this point were also arguably over-dependent on the Nanos Nightly Tracking numbers, with their “Three day rolling average of 1,200 voters.”

The Canada-wide Nanos numbers for September 18–20 similarly reported Conservatives 31.0%,  Liberals  29.4% and New Democrats 29.1%. And the Nanos Ontario results for the same period were Conservatives 35.5%, Liberals 34.5%, New Democrats 24.4%.

And then, just this past Saturday Bob Hepburn was warning all forms of progressive Toronto Star readers “Why embattled Harper may still win the race … Don’t count the Conservative leader out yet. He’s fired up his hard-core base and they’re ready to vote.”

* * * *

Ipsos poll for Global News, September 18–21, 2015.

At the same time again, there have been other recent signs of federal Liberal straws in the campaign wind. Mr. Trudeau’s party has done well in Atlantic Canada in many past polls. And this trend continues in such recent headlines as “Poll: Tory support toppling in parts of Atlantic Canada as the Liberals pick up steam.”

This past Saturday the Toronto Star also reported that the “federal Liberals appear to have a gained a foothold in Toronto and the GTA, with 41% of voters saying they’ve decided on — or are leaning toward — the party, a new poll by Forum Research finds … Thirty-one per cent of 1,183 respondents in the 416 and 905 regions polled Sept. 16 and 17 said they’ll vote for or are inclined toward the Conservatives, and 24% said they favoured the NDP … The Green party drew 4% support and 1% of respondents said ‘other’.”

And then the Friday before last (September 11) Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau climbed “the famous Grouse Grind during an election campaign stop in North Vancouver.”  And this won a headline in the Vancouver Sun as follows : “Trudeau reaches new campaign heights on the Grouse Grind … Liberal leader proves ready and able to leg it up the notorious hike.”

In any case (and yet again), according to Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos, the Liberals’ latest Canada-wide gains “have largely been driven by growing support in Ontario.”

Ipsos poll for Global News, September 18–21, 2015.

Mr. Bricker went on to downplay the significance of these gains : the Trudeau II Liberals “‘had a good week,’ Bricker said … But that doesn’t mean Trudeau has cemented his lead — far from it. The 42nd election campaign is the longest ever and, to use a cliché, more of a marathon than a sprint —  and no one has pulled away … ‘What it shows is that … At one point one person gets at the front of the pack … and then somebody else moves to the front of the pack. That’s what we have right now,’ Bricker said.”

Oh and btw, note two final things that the latest Ipsos poll also discovered :

(1) “The desire for change remains strong with 71% of respondents saying it’s ‘time for another federal party to take over’ compared with just 29% who say the ‘Harper government has done a good job and deserves re-election.’”

(2) In response to the question “Who would make the best prime minister,” 30% of Ipsos respondents said Stephen Harper, 32% said Justin Trudeau, and 38% said Thomas Mulcair. So … it still does seem to be a race that, at this point at least, almost any of the three major parties and/or party leaders can win — or at least finish first in. Stay tuned.

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