What happens to Ontario Liberals this October could be more important for Liberal Party of Canada than Bob Rae?

Jun 6th, 2011 | By | Category: In Brief

1930 federal Liberal election poster (another year they lost), showing party leader Mackenzie King forging a chain link among the provinces, through “conciliation.”

They don’t take up much space in the 41st Parliament of Canada, which has just begun a very short housekeeping session, before fleeing for the traditional summer break. The future of the once high and mighty federal Liberals after their massacre this past May 2 nonetheless continues to attract attention.

Among key current written texts see, eg:  Randy Boswell, “Rae makes plans to rebuild party of Laurier, Trudeau” ; Patrick Gossage, “The Blue Sweep of Toronto” ;  Scott Reid, “On the Long Road Back From Third Place, Liberals Need to Play the Long Game” ; and Jane Taber, “A month later, Liberals seek fresh start free of ‘middle-aged white guys’.”

In the more slippery underworld of the oral tradition, in bars and restaurants and living rooms and around kitchen tables, there are those who say the Liberal Party of Canada is finished. And there are others who say the Liberal Party of the Canadian future has only just begun. Still others again say the feud between Chretien and Martin supporters has still not ended, etc, etc, etc

What almost no one seems focused on at the moment is the role of Canada’s provincial Liberal parties in the federal Liberal future. But it is the provocative plain truth at the moment that the three largest provinces of Canada – geographically and demographically (together they account for three-quarters of the Canada-wide population)  – are all governed by political parties that at least call themselves Liberal.

Some will say of course that the BC provincial Liberals are nothing like the federal Liberals. But this seems an at least somewhat less convincing argument under the new leadership of Christy Clark. Others will say that Jean Charest’s provincial Liberal party is unlikely to win the next Quebec election. But then just today we heard: “PQ left reeling after three top members of Quebec sovereigntist party quit.”

Dalton McGuinty’s current Liberal government of Ontario is trailing in the polls at the moment too. But it is always difficult to judge the extent to which Ontario polling results – even when a provincial election is due in as little as four months – just haphazardly reflect the Canada-first province’s perceptions of the latest federal election, still not much more than a month behind us.

Warren Kinsella, man in motion: now “a Dalton McGuinty Liberal – running the premier’s election war room.”

It is intriguing as well how Warren Kinsella – who predicted and warned against the May 2 massacre of the federal party, long before it happened – is now describing himself as “a Dalton McGuinty Liberal – running the premier’s election war room.”

Federal and provincial Liberal parties are different animals in Canada, no doubt – and have been for some time. But what happens to the McGuinty government this coming October 6, 2011 could have much more to do with the future of the Liberal Party of Canada than almost anything else extant at this exact moment. A McGuinty Liberal defeat in Canada’s most populous province could be just another nail in the coffin. On the other hand, if Andrew Steele’s prediction of this past January 5 “Dalton McGuinty re-elected to third term” finally proves correct (along with his “Christy Clark is elected B.C. Liberal leader” and “Federal election returns a Harper majority”), that could make it quite a lot harder to hear all those who now argue the Canadian Liberalism Frank Underhill went in search of in the early 1960s has finally been lost forever.

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