12-Day War? A Trump gamble that might actually work .. even if not quite as he might think himself??

Jun 24th, 2025 | By | Category: In Brief
Michael Seward, In a Landscape. 2025.

RANDALL WHITE, FERNWOOD PARK, TORONTO. TUESDAY, JUNE 24, 2025. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s current trip to Europe — to sign a Canada-Europe security and defence pact in Brussels — may look somewhat provocative, in the immediate wake of Donald Trump’s sudden US strategic bombing of three nuclear energy sites in Iran.

Yet the so-called “Canada — EU Summit, planned for Monday evening” has now taken place And it was arranged some time before the present US president’s almost surprising military gamble in the Middle East. To round things out : “After Brussels, Carney will travel to The Hague for the NATO leaders’ summit” — as will President Trump (and both men were almost certainly there this afternoon).

“Prime Minister Mark Carney calls Canada ‘the most European of the non-European countries’ as he signs Security and Defence Partnership agreement to deepen ties with EU in Brussels.”

I’d altogether agree that, as has been widely noted on Twitter/X and other places, one key motivation behind President Trump’s sudden decision to use US (technological) military might in Iran (in support of Israel, and against prospective Iranian nuclear weapons which no sane and informed observer can welcome) is just to distract public attention away from the (already) increasingly obvious domestic failures of the Trump administration 2.0, 2025–2029.

Moreover, these failures — starting with an absurd tariff policy from a dusty 19th century textbook, bound to raise already high prices — were dramatized by the contrasting US parades on Saturday, June 14, 2025. One was a dull, uninspiring official show in Washington, DC. The other was a dazzlingly vast array of almost surprisingly well-attended “No Kings” protests across the country. The timing of the US Iran bombing, a week after No Kings, is provocative.

(1) But is it also a gamble that just might work?

Several commentators on TV have called the US nighttime bomber attack on three Iranian nuclear sites “a gamble.” For anti-Trump Canadians like myself the biggest trouble with the gamble is that it just might work — and/or even already be working.

High ranking Canadians and Europeans at EU-Canada Summit in Brussels.

Note the reaction, eg, of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz : “I see no reason to criticize the U.S. or Israel for striking Iran.” Or : “Foreign Minister Penny Wong said Australia backs US military strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites.”

Meanwhile, in Canada “Carney calls for de-escalation, ‘diplomatic solution’ after U.S. strikes on Iran.” Canadian PM Mark Carney at least seems to think the strikes could ultimately bring Iran back to diplomacy — which really is the only way to finally resolve the Iranian nuclear weapons problem child. (And note too the apparent moderation of Iran’s retaliatory missile response, against the biggest US Middle East military base in Qatar.)

If something close enough to all this actually does fall together more or less coherently over the next few weeks, the Trump strategy of pretending to suddenly fight a war and then just as suddenly arrange a popular truce, to cover up domestic policy failure, just might be seen to have succeeded brilliantly.

(2) Where we are right now … “Ask not what your country can do for you …”

The EU-Canada Summit in general session, June 23, 2025.

Just where those of us still trying to live in the real world are on all this, as of the mid afternoon ET Tuesday, June 24, 2025 : “Shaky ceasefire between Iran and Israel takes hold as Trump voices frustration … Iran denies firing after ceasefire went into effect, but explosions are heard in northern Israel.”

(So goes the headline assigned by the CBC News site to an Associated Press report which first appeared late yesterday afternoon, and was “Last Updated: 28 minutes ago” as of c. 3PM ET today.)

The frustration Trump has voiced flows from his own announcement that through his various arts of the deal (and bombing) a cease-fire between Iran and Israel had finally been arranged, followed by no confirmation from either warring party for some time, and even some continuing military action.

All this finally led to Foreign Policy magazine’s Quote of the Day — “‘We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing’ — Trump responding to the news that an Iran-Israel cease-fire was on shaky ground, less than a day after he announced the truce, as he left the White House for The Hague early on Tuesday.”

My own view of the most apt comment on this Donald Trump pronouncement comes from former Canadian radio shock jock (and current shrewd enough observer of public life in North America), Dean Blundell (accompanying a clip of President Trump offering his relevant Quote of the Day ) : “Of all the people to say ‘they don’t know what the fuck they are doing…’”.

I also like the US TV host whose name I forget, who suggested it would have been incredible if JFK had said : “Ask not what your country can do for you. Ask what the fuck you can do for your country.”

Trump in any case has reached a new low — or some might say high … even if he has also finally done something almost useful .. maybe.

(The latest news as I write is : “US strikes did not destroy Iran nuclear programme, says Pentagon assessment.” Which is not surprising. That can only be done through diplomacy. Which President Trump may yet achieve, following in President Obama’s innovative bold footsteps!)

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